# Antenna Calls Streaming-Wars Era Over as Sub Growth Falls to 7% > Streaming primetime commitments rose 17.9% to $13.2 billion as Disney quietly stopped reporting subscriber counts. - Publication: The State of Streaming - Section: Measurement & Data - Published: 2026-04-25T20:00:00.000Z - Updated: 2026-04-25T20:00:00.000Z - Byline: The State of Streaming Staff - Canonical URL: https://thestateofstreaming.com/measurement-data/2026/04/streaming-wars-era-ended-2025-data-story/ - Read time: 5 min ## Summary U.S. premium SVOD subscriber growth fell to 7% in 2025 — the first single-digit year on record — while ad-supported plans captured 46% of subscriptions and 71% of net adds, per Antenna. Netflix and Disney have both stopped reporting quarterly subscribers; the 2026 NewFronts plan around ad-tier supply, not subs. ## Key facts - U.S. premium SVOD subscriber growth fell to 7% in 2025, down from 12% in 2024 — the first single-digit year for the category, per Antenna's Q1 2026 State of Subscriptions report. - 46% of U.S. premium SVOD subscriptions at services that offer both tiers were on ad-supported plans by end-Q1 2025, up from roughly 33% two years earlier, per Antenna's Q2 2025 State of Subscriptions: 'Adds & Ads.' - Ad-supported plans drove 71% of U.S. premium SVOD net adds across nine quarters; 27.4 million net adds came from ad tiers in 2024 vs. 5.4 million from ad-free plans, per Antenna's Q2 2025 State of Subscriptions report. - The Walt Disney Company stopped reporting Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+ subscriber counts and ARPU as of its Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings on Feb. 2, 2026, executing a disclosure change first announced Aug. 6, 2025. - 2025-26 streaming primetime upfront commitments rose 17.9% to $13.2 billion while broadcast fell 2.5% to $9.1 billion and cable fell 4.3% to $8.68 billion, per Media Dynamics (reported by Variety). ## Why it matters Subscriber counts were the trade press's scoring system for the streaming-wars era. With Netflix and Disney both withdrawing those metrics, with category growth in single digits, and with nearly half of U.S. premium SVOD subscriptions now on ad-supported plans, ad buyers and ad-tech operators are entering the 2026 NewFronts/upfronts cycle planning against retention, margin, and ad-tier penetration as the core KPIs. ## What to watch - NewFronts week May 5–9, 2026 — first major ad-sales cycle planned around ad-tier supply rather than total subscriber counts. - Disney Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings (early May 2026) — second consecutive quarter without Disney+/Hulu subscriber counts; key read on DTC operating margin progress toward Disney's stated FY2026 10% margin target. - Netflix Q2 2026 earnings (mid-July 2026) — next data point on ad-revenue trajectory against Netflix's $3 billion 2026 ad-revenue target. - Antenna Q2 2026 State of Subscriptions report (summer 2026) — next update on whether ad-supported tier share advances past 46% of U.S. premium SVOD subscriptions or stabilizes. ## Article Forty-six percent of U.S. premium SVOD subscriptions at services that offer both tiers were on ad-supported plans by end-Q1 2025, up from roughly 33 percent two years earlier, [according to Antenna's Q2 2025 State of Subscriptions report](https://www.antenna.live/insights/antenna-q225-state-of-subscriptions-report-adds-and-ads). That single line, more than any earnings beat or executive memo this cycle, is the planning input ad buyers and ad-tech operators are taking into the 2026 NewFronts and upfronts. Antenna's data covers Discovery+, Disney+, Hulu, [Max](/products/hbo-max/), Netflix, [Paramount+](/products/paramount-plus/), and [Peacock](/products/peacock/). By end-Q1 2025, ad-supported plans accounted for nearly 100 million U.S. subs across that universe, up from 53 million at end-Q1 2023, and ad tiers drove 71 percent of net adds across the prior nine quarters. The composition of growth split sharply: ad-supported net adds climbed from 19.8 million in 2023 to 27.4 million in 2024, while ad-free net adds dropped from 14.1 million to 5.4 million in the same window. The chart above traces the ad-tier share trajectory, with vertical annotations at the [Netflix Basic with Ads launch on Nov. 3, 2022](https://techcrunch.com/2022/10/13/netflixs-ad-supported-tier-set-to-launch-on-november-3/), [Disney+ Basic on Dec. 8, 2022](https://variety.com/2022/digital/news/netflix-ad-supported-plan-launch-date-pricing-1235402196/), and [Max's $9.99 ad tier on May 23, 2023](https://www.wbd.com/warner-bros-discovery-announces-roster-of-advertising-solutions-for-agencies-and-brands-ahead-of-max-streaming-platform-launch-on-may-23). Almost three years after the last of those launches, the ad tier is structurally where U.S. premium SVOD growth lives. Antenna's [Q1 2026 State of Subscriptions report](https://www.antenna.live/insights/antenna-q126-state-of-subscriptions-report-premium-svod-2025-year-in-review), published in March, named the inflection in plain language: "For many years, the 'Streaming Wars' were defined by double-digit growth and massive acquisition spend. But in 2025, that era ended." Total U.S. premium SVOD subscriber growth was 7 percent in 2025, the first single-digit year for the category, down from 12 percent in 2024. Weighted average churn stabilized at 4.6 percent, and seven of nine premium SVOD services showed more stable churn patterns in 2025 than in 2023. Antenna CEO Jonathan Carson's firm has been the trade press's standard reference for SVOD subscriber metrics since 2020; this is the most consequential editorial call it has issued. The Walt Disney Company's (NYSE: DIS) Q1 fiscal 2026 print on [Feb. 2, 2026](https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/news/disney-q1-earnings-2026/) was the corporate ratification. Disney reported $25.98 billion in revenue, up 5 percent; $5.35 billion in Entertainment DTC revenue, up 11 percent; and $450 million in DTC operating income, up 72 percent. It did so without disclosing Disney+, Hulu, or ESPN+ subscriber counts or ARPU — a change Disney [announced on Aug. 6, 2025](https://variety.com/2025/tv/news/disney-stop-reporting-subscriber-numbers-disney-plus-hulu-espn-1236480413/), explaining that "quarterly updates on the number of paid subscribers and ARPU have become less meaningful to evaluating the performance of our businesses." The last Disney+/Hulu combined sub count Disney published was [183 million as of June 2025](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/digital/disney-stop-reporting-subscribr-numbers-hulu-disney-plus-1236338393/). [Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX)](/platforms/2026/04/netflix-q1-2026-buyback-ad-tier/) made the same move first, [announcing in April 2024](https://variety.com/2024/digital/news/netflix-stop-reporting-subscriber-totals-apple-iphone-sales-1235976401/) it would stop reporting quarterly subs in Q1 2025. Two of the three largest U.S. premium SVOD operators have now stopped reporting quarterly sub counts, both during the same calendar year. The ad money tracks the same call. [Per Variety, citing Media Dynamics' 2025-26 upfront tally](https://variety.com/2026/tv/news/tv-upfront-where-will-ad-dollars-go-1236729674/), broadcast primetime commitments fell 2.5 percent to $9.1 billion and cable fell 4.3 percent to $8.68 billion in the cycle just closed, while streaming primetime commitments rose 17.9 percent to $13.2 billion. That is roughly $620 million of linear primetime commitments lost and $2.1 billion of streaming primetime commitments gained in a single cycle, the dollar movement that an ad-tier inventory base of ~100 million subs makes possible. [TVNewsCheck](https://tvnewscheck.com/business/article/tvs-next-upfront-really-isnt-about-tv-where-will-ad-dollars-go) corroborates the same Media Dynamics figures. Variety's Brian Steinberg also forecast, per Variety, that 2026-27 cable advertising will decline another 10 percent while broadcast rises about 5 percent, suggesting the trend has another cycle to run. A skeptical reader is right to want pre-emption. The trade press has called the streaming wars over before — [CNBC ran the line in May 2022](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/29/netflix-and-rivals-enter-pivotal-second-act-of-streaming-wars-saga.html) after Netflix's first quarterly subscriber loss in a decade. The earlier "over" calls failed because subscriber growth resumed and ad tiers were still launching; the score-by-subs framework held while operators were still reporting the score. The 2025 evidence is structurally different. The operators themselves have stopped reporting the scoreboard the older calls argued over — Netflix in Q1 2025, Disney in Q1 FY26 — so the metric is no longer being kept. Category growth has crossed into single digits for the first time. Ad-tier share has crossed 46 percent of subs and 71 percent of net adds, which means the unit of supply ad buyers transact looks materially different from the unit operators marketed against in 2019-2022. Operators and analysts are reading it the same way. On Disney's Feb. 2 call, CFO Hugh Johnston said the company expects to lift DTC operating margin from a roughly 5 percent mark in fiscal 2024 to a "10 margin" in fiscal 2026. [Futuresource Consulting analyst Anastasia Budash framed the strategic pivot on April 23](https://futuresource-consulting.com/the-source/industry-pulse/from-subscriber-growth-to-value-creation-what-s-next-for-streaming): "The era of growth at any cost is over." Budash's piece flags two complications worth carrying forward: ad revenue "has yet to fully compensate for the difference in return from standard and premium plans," and "repeated price rises, even on ad plans, are already emerging as a key driver of churn." The market is still growing. Netflix ended 2025 at [325 million global subs, up 24 million from end-2024](https://www.thewrap.com/media-platforms/streaming/netflix-disney-warner-bros-paramount-peacock-subscribers-revenue-profits-march-2026-update/), reaffirmed double-digit revenue-growth guidance for 2026, and Antenna characterizes the new phase as more stable growth. The category-defining metric, double-digit acquisition-driven growth at the top of operators' valuation case, is what 2025 retired. Four calendar triggers will test the new frame: NewFronts week May 5–9 is the first major sales cycle planned around ad-tier supply rather than total subs; Disney's Q2 fiscal 2026 print in early May is the second quarter under the new disclosure regime; Netflix's Q2 print in mid-July gives the next read on the company's $3 billion 2026 ad-revenue framing; and Antenna's Q2 2026 State of Subscriptions report, due summer, is where the 46 percent ad-tier share number gets its next update. ## Entities - Companies: The Walt Disney Company, Netflix, Inc., Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc., Comcast Corporation, Paramount Skydance Corporation, Antenna, Futuresource Consulting, Media Dynamics, Inc., TD Cowen, LightShed Partners - People: Jonathan Carson, Anastasia Budash, Hugh Johnston, Greg Peters ## Tags - Antenna - Netflix - Disney+ - ad-supported streaming - SVOD subscriber growth - streaming ad tiers - NewFronts 2026 - subscriber disclosure - streaming upfront - Q1-2026 ## Sourced claims - Antenna's Q1 2026 State of Subscriptions report stated: 'For many years, the Streaming Wars were defined by double-digit growth and massive acquisition spend. But in 2025, that era ended.' — source: https://www.antenna.live/insights/antenna-q126-state-of-subscriptions-report-premium-svod-2025-year-in-review - U.S. premium SVOD subscriber growth was +7% in 2025, down from +12% in 2024. — source: https://www.antenna.live/insights/antenna-q126-state-of-subscriptions-report-premium-svod-2025-year-in-review - Weighted average premium SVOD churn rate stabilized at 4.6% in 2025. — source: https://www.antenna.live/insights/antenna-q126-state-of-subscriptions-report-premium-svod-2025-year-in-review - 46% of U.S. premium SVOD subs at services offering both tiers were on ad-supported plans by end-Q1 2025. — source: https://www.antenna.live/insights/antenna-q225-state-of-subscriptions-report-adds-and-ads - Roughly 100 million U.S. ad-supported premium SVOD subs at end-Q1 2025, up from 53 million two years prior. — source: https://www.antenna.live/insights/antenna-q225-state-of-subscriptions-report-adds-and-ads - Ad plans drove 71% of premium SVOD net adds across the prior nine quarters. — source: https://www.antenna.live/insights/antenna-q225-state-of-subscriptions-report-adds-and-ads - Ad-supported net adds rose from 19.8 million in 2023 to 27.4 million in 2024; ad-free net adds fell from 14.1 million to 5.4 million. — source: https://www.antenna.live/insights/antenna-q225-state-of-subscriptions-report-adds-and-ads - Disney announced on Aug. 6, 2025 it would stop reporting Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+ subscriber counts and ARPU; the change took effect Q4 FY25 for ESPN+ and Q1 FY26 for Disney+/Hulu. — source: https://variety.com/2025/tv/news/disney-stop-reporting-subscriber-numbers-disney-plus-hulu-espn-1236480413/ - Disney Q1 FY26 (Feb. 2, 2026): revenue $25.98 billion (+5%); Entertainment DTC revenue $5.35 billion (+11%); DTC operating income $450 million (+72%). — source: https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/news/disney-q1-earnings-2026/ - Disney's last reported Disney+/Hulu combined subscriber count was 183 million as of June 2025. — source: https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/digital/disney-stop-reporting-subscribr-numbers-hulu-disney-plus-1236338393/ - Netflix announced on April 18, 2024 it would stop reporting quarterly subscriber numbers, effective Q1 2025. — source: https://variety.com/2024/digital/news/netflix-stop-reporting-subscriber-totals-apple-iphone-sales-1235976401/ - Netflix ended 2025 with 325 million global subs, up from 301.2 million at end-2024. — source: https://www.thewrap.com/media-platforms/streaming/netflix-disney-warner-bros-paramount-peacock-subscribers-revenue-profits-march-2026-update/ - Per Media Dynamics, 2025-26 broadcast primetime upfront fell 2.5% to $9.1 billion; cable fell 4.3% to $8.68 billion; streaming rose 17.9% to $13.2 billion. — source: https://variety.com/2026/tv/news/tv-upfront-where-will-ad-dollars-go-1236729674/ - Variety's forecast: 2026-27 cable advertising predicted to decline 10%; broadcast TV up ~5%. — source: https://variety.com/2026/tv/news/tv-upfront-where-will-ad-dollars-go-1236729674/ - Futuresource Consulting analyst Anastasia Budash, April 23, 2026: 'The era of growth at any cost is over.' — source: https://futuresource-consulting.com/the-source/industry-pulse/from-subscriber-growth-to-value-creation-what-s-next-for-streaming - CNBC, May 29, 2022: 'The first act of the streaming wars saga is over.' — source: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/29/netflix-and-rivals-enter-pivotal-second-act-of-streaming-wars-saga.html - Netflix Basic with Ads launched Nov. 3, 2022 at $6.99/month. — source: https://techcrunch.com/2022/10/13/netflixs-ad-supported-tier-set-to-launch-on-november-3/ - Disney+ ad-supported tier launched Dec. 8, 2022 at $7.99/month. — source: https://variety.com/2022/digital/news/netflix-ad-supported-plan-launch-date-pricing-1235402196/ - Max launched its $9.99 ad-supported tier on May 23, 2023. — source: https://www.wbd.com/warner-bros-discovery-announces-roster-of-advertising-solutions-for-agencies-and-brands-ahead-of-max-streaming-platform-launch-on-may-23 --- View this article in a browser: https://thestateofstreaming.com/measurement-data/2026/04/streaming-wars-era-ended-2025-data-story/ Browse the publication: https://thestateofstreaming.com/ Machine-readable index: https://thestateofstreaming.com/llms.txt